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Thinking about investing in publicly traded cybersecurity companies — does it make sense?

GGökhan D***Member
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#1

I've been working as a systems engineer in cybersecurity for a long time and I see firsthand how fast the industry is growing globally. To increase the tech weighting in my personal portfolio I've been taking a close look at local exchange-listed companies focused on cybersecurity and defense software. I'm planning to start off with around 120,000 TL in capital.

But my head started spinning while doing fundamental analysis. Their P/E ratios and P/B multiples are sky-high compared to industrial or retail companies. On top of that, their income statements are super volatile; they post massive profits in some quarters and run huge cash deficits in others. honestly their heavy reliance on government tenders and long collection cycles are also red flags for me.

As an IT professional, I trust the sector's potential but what should I be looking out for when analyzing these companies as a stock investor? Are the high multiples actually pricing in future growth, or is this sector completely overhyped?

EElif T***Member
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Most Helpful#2

Short answer: Evaluating listed cybersecurity companies with traditional valuation multiples is misleading; when making an investment decision you should look at the share of FX-based recurring license revenue in total turnover, their reliance on public and defense tenders, and their backlog volume. High valuations can only be justified by sustainable product revenues.

First, you need to break down the revenue model. Cybersecurity companies have two main revenue streams: man-hour-based integration/consulting services and recurring software license sales. Consulting cannot scale; it only generates revenue proportional to headcount and when labor costs surge with inflation margins compress. However, companies that sell their own in-house security products on an annual licensing model boast very high gross margins. You must check the breakdown between service revenue and license/maintenance revenue in the annual reports.

The second critical factor is order backlogs—meaning signed contracts. The main reason quarterly earnings in this sector are so volatile is that they depend on milestone billing schedules for public and defense industry projects. You should track the total size of signed contracts disclosed on the Public Disclosure Platform (KAP) and their delivery schedules. A large project spanning two years might not generate cash in a given quarter, but it secures the company's future cash flow.

Finally, check how R&D expenses are accounted for on the balance sheet. Some companies capitalize R&D expenses as assets instead of expensing them directly on the P&L; this temporarily inflates net profit, but earnings quality is low. High retention rates for skilled technical staff and the capacity to generate FX export revenue should be your primary screening filters.

CCeren E***MemberCommunity member
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#3

Pay close attention to Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) on the financials. For tech companies doing business with government agencies, receivables turnover can stretch beyond 180 days. In a high-inflation environment, getting paid in local currency six months later destroys the company's real profits. A client portfolio weighted toward the private sector and foreign clients is always much healthier.

GGökhan G***MemberCommunity member
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#4

It's so easy to buy into a good narrative in tech. Cybersecurity sounds amazing on paper, but when you look at the actual turnover of a few listed companies you realize they just run on three or four government tenders. The moment those tenders dry up or get delayed those massive multiples collapse overnight. Tread very carefully imo.

Correction: I misremembered the figure, it was a bit lower.

BBarışExpert
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#5

I've been holding a company in this space for two years. When they posted a 15 million TL loss in Q1, the stock hit the lower limit; by year-end, a single defense contract delivery pushed them to a 110 million TL net profit. With these stocks, you can't look at single quarters—you have to position yourself based on cumulative 12 to 24-month figures.

MMehmet A***Expert
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#6

Follow these three steps when evaluating them: 1) Check the FX export ratio in the annual report, 2) See if net working capital needs are being funded by short-term debt, 3) Review the share of personnel expenses within total operating expenses and check employee turnover rates.

GGürkan V***Member
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#7

Don't buy on headlines. Whenever news of a massive cyberattack hits the media, everyone rushes into these stocks, the price hits the upper circuit for two days, and then dumps right back to square one. Being a systems engineer is an edge; you're the best judge of whether their tech actually stands out against global competitors. If the product is solid, it'll grow into its valuation over time.

NNazlı A***Member
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#8

you dont buy tech stocks just looking at p/e, but definitely check the free float and whether the founders are selling shares. I mean if insiders keep dumping stock while reporting operational growth, theyre just offloading bags onto retail.

YYağmur O***Veteran
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#9

Where exactly in the annual reports can we find that order backlog breakdown? honestly i looked through the footnotes, but not every company seems to disclose it clearly. Isn't that legally required?

ÖÖzge E***Member
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#10

saved then splitting your budget without knowing where you're lossing users is just throwing money in the dark.

start with a small trial; don't commit to everything at once but just leaving this note, it might be useful.

SSelim T***Member
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#11

You're right. Changing habits is harder and more expensive than setting up a system.

If you post the result here, it will help others too.

MMerve K***Member
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Doki · Infrastructure migration · 2026

#12

We experienced almost the exact same thing last year... like a small market isn't bad; working cheaply in a small market is.

Im also curious if anyone does it differently.

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Doki · Vulnerability scanning · 2023

#13

I'd say don't rush. When you try to change everything at once, nothing settles.

ŞŞerife U***Member
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#14

Let me share what happened to me; it might be useful. Don't hesitate to ask; those who don't ask always pay more.

When making a decision also write down the cost of reversal. Of course, it varies if your situation is different.

YYiğit K***Member
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#15

Thanks, that was the answer I was looking for. Everything goes well for the first three months; problems arise in the fourth.

Just leaving this note, it might be useful.

SSonerMember
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Doki · Corporate website · 2025

#16

To get into the details: Don't hesitate to ask; those who don't ask always pay more.

I'm also curious if anyone does it differently.

MMurat B***ExpertCommunity member
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#17

Same here.

IIrmak P***ExpertCommunity member
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#18

i went throuh the same thing.

TTülay K***ExpertCommunity member
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#19

My questions are cleared up, thanks. The biggest time-waster for us was not knowing who had the final say.

Solutions that work at a small scale collapse when you grow; I learned this late. That's all, sorry if I went on too long.

BBarış K***Veteran
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Doki · Mobile app · 2024

#20

The discussion got scattered, let me summarize. The real issue isn't the number, but what it's based on.

That's all, sorry if I went on too long.

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